August 2010 headlines
- Unemployment in the West Midlands has fallen — by 66,000 people over the last year, 27,000 people in the last quarter. There are however 59,000 more unemployed people in the West Midlands than in February 2008.
- Unemployment has fallen faster in the West Midlands than anywhere else in the country over the last year and in the last quarter. However, unemployment rose more sharply here than elsewhere earlier in the recession, so essentially this is a rebalancing of employment levels.
- We're not out of the woods yet. Employment levels have not yet reached their pre-recession levels, and we're expecting a significant loss of public sector jobs in the coming months, which could wipe out the recent drop in unemployment altogether.
Our monthly updates
We monitor the latest employment and unemployment data for the West Midlands, which is published monthly by the Office for National Statistics. We analyse the data and show the latest position of the West Midlands relative to the other regions in England.
The data covers the period up to July 2010 for the claimant count, and the quarter up to June 2010 for employment and ILO unemployment.
Jobseekers' Allowance claimant rates
We've produced interactive maps showing the proportion of the region's working age population claiming Jobseekers' Allowance in each local authority and ward.
We update the maps each month and currently show data up to July 2010.
Employment
The employment rate in the West Midlands for the three months to June 2010 has remained steady at 69.3%. The English average employment rate is now 70.9%, so the gap between the regional and national employment rates is now 1.6 percentage points — considerably lower than it was a year ago.
Source: Office for National Statistics (Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted data)
ILO unemployment
The official International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure of unemployment in the West Midlands has fallen slightly to 8.3% (April 2010–June 2010), 2.3 percentage points lower than it was at the same time last year.
As the chart below shows, the West Midlands saw one of the largest rises in unemployment over the course of the recession, but it has since fallen more quickly here than elsewhere.
The West Midlands was the most heavily affected region at the beginning of the recession, seeing a 4.4 percentage point rise in unemployment between the April-June quarters in 2008 and 2009 and at one point had the highest unemployment rate of any region. However, unemployment has fallen from its peak level, and although higher than in 2008, the West Midlands is now middle ranking among the regions.
Source: Office for National Statistics (Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted data)
The regional unemployment rate has fallen by 2.3 percentage points since its peak in the April–June 2009 quarter, equating to over 66,000 fewer unemployed people than a year ago, but 59,000 more than in February 2008.
The total number currently unemployed stands at 221,000, which is 27,000 fewer than last quarter. Unemployment in the West Midlands has now been declining for a year, whilst in some other parts of England, rates are continuing to rise.
The disproportionate impact of the recession on unemployment in the West Midlands is shown in the chart below. The gap between the unemployment rate in England and the West Midlands increased considerably from the beginning of 2008 but has since narrowed.
Source: Office for National Statistics (Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted data)
Economic inactivity
The West Midlands has a higher rate of economic inactivity (ie people neither in work nor seeking jobs) than the nation as a whole. However, economic inactivity rates have fluctuated throughout the recession, with the gap growing and then narrowing.
In previous recessions there have been significant increases in economic inactivity following economic recovery so it will be important to continue to monitor the level of economic inactivity. This quarter has seen the economic inactivity rate rise slightly, but this may be part of the overall fluctuation. At the moment the rate of inactivity is broadly similar to the pre-recession level, as the chart below shows.
Source: Office for National Statistics (Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted data)
Claimant count
As of July 2010, there are 159,400 people in the West Midlands claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA - the unemployment benefit). This is 1,100 fewer than a month earlier, and 25,200 fewer than the peak of 184,600 in October 2009. Despite the falling JSA rates, there are still 64,900 more people claiming than in January 2008.
Source: Office for National Statistics (claimant count, seasonally adjusted data)
The West Midlands still has the second-highest claimant count rate of all the English regions, at 5.8% compared with the national rate of 4.4%. Only the North East currently has a higher claimant rate than the West Midlands.
Source: Office for National Statistics (claimant count, seasonally adjusted data)
At a sub-regional level, there's wide variation in the numbers of people claiming Jobseekers' Allowance.
Data for July 2010 show that the percentage of working age people claiming Jobseekers' Allowance ranges from 1.6% in Stratford-on-Avon to 7.2% in Wolverhampton. All West Midlands districts now have claimant count rates lower than those they had a year ago.
To see how the recession has affected each Local Authority District area, see our interactive map which shows trends in claimant rates in each Local Authority in the region.
Young people
Young people have been the worst affected age group in this recession, seeing the biggest increases in their unemployment rates.
There are over 45,000 young people (aged 18–24) in the West Midlands claiming Jobseekers' Allowance, equating to almost one in every eleven young people (claimant rate 8.7%). These figures represent similar youth claimant rates for the region than last month, and the West Midlands still has the highest youth claimant rate among the English regions:
Source: Office for National Statistics (claimant count)
Birmingham and the Black Country have youth claimant rates over 10%, meaning that more than one in ten young people are unemployed and claiming Jobseekers' Allowance.
Dataset: youth claimant rates by regions and Local Authority (July 2010) (xls, 40kb)
Definitions
There are four headline measures:
- Employment
- ILO unemployment (this is the offical measure of unemployment based on the International Labour Organisation definition of those looking for and available for work)
- Economic inactivity (those of working age who are neither working nor seeking work)
- Claimant count (numbers of people claiming unemployment benefit)