Much of our research programme on economic inclusion has focussed on the supply side of worklessness, concentrating on the significant numbers of people in the West Midlands who are workless.
To build on our understanding of worklessness, in this report we focus on the demand side of the labour market in relation to worklessness.
This research looks at the future demand for entry level jobs. It also looks at those jobs that could provide a step into employment for people who have been workless and out of the labour market for a long period, particularly those with low skills levels.
We look at which sectors are likely to provide opportunities for people who have been workless and which entry level jobs could provide the best opportunities for progression.
We published the report on 23 November 2010:
Key findings
There are currently 260,000 people unemployed and looking for work and a further 700,000 economically inactive people in the West Midlands. 1 in 3 workless people (more than 300,000 people) have no formal qualifications and 53% of workless people (more than half a million people) have either no formal qualifications or qualifications below NVQ level 2.
Employment opportunities for people with low level qualifications are available across all sectors but there are five sectors which have more than a third of their workforce with low or no qualifications. These five sectors are likely to offer more entry level opportunities:
- Wholesale and retail
- Transport
- Agriculture, hotels and restaurants
- Other manufacturing sectors
The sectors most likely to recruit workless people are hotels and restaurants, wholesale and retail and miscellaneous services. The occupations most likely to be entered by workless people are elementary, sales and customer service and personal service occupations.
Most future employment opportunities will arise from replacement demand. Between 2007 and 2017, 984,000 opportunities will arise as a result of people retiring from the workforce (replacement demand) and there will be 125,000 net new jobs. This amounts to an overall employment demand of 1.1 million jobs in the West Midlands.
This overall demand of 1.1 million jobs over ten years sounds like a lot, but it equates to 110,000 jobs per year. So in any given year, for example this year (2010), there are 261,000 people looking for work, and a further 700,000 economically inactive. Over the course of the year there will be around 110,000 jobs available. Crucially, most of the jobs made available will be filled by people already in work.
The occupations which are less likely to be accessible to workless people (managers and professional and technical occupations) are forecast to have the highest levels of future demand.
Those occupations most likely to provide opportunities for workless people (elementary, sales and customer service and personal service occupations) are projected to decline in overall numbers. Thanks to replacement demand they will still create 310,000 opportunities between 2007 and 2017. This equates to around 30,000 entry level jobs per year – a fraction of the level required to reduce unemployment and worklessness.