There's always been a need for policy to be grounded in evidence. When money is tight, the need is even greater to ensure resources are targeted where they can make the most difference.
Understanding the future impact of a policy decision is vital. Past experience and local knowledge can provide some understanding, but it can't tell us everything about the future.
This is where tools like our Policy Assessment Model (PAM) come in.
This short slidecast explains why the Policy Assessment Model was developed, how it works and how it can be used:
View on viddler | Get slides (ppt, 651kb)
The model goes beyond standard forecasting tools (although it will produce forecasts). It enables modelling direct and indirect impacts of a wide range of policy options and scenarios over the long term, allowing more informed decisions.
It's capable of modelling impacts on the economy, the population and the local authorities within the West Midlands.
Modelling isn't new. However, our model uses cutting-edge techniques to improve on what was possible before.
This short slidecast uses the baseline projections and a scenario modelling the impact of public spending cuts to demonstrate the outputs and practical benefits of using the Policy Assessment Model .
View on viddler | Get slides (ppt, 3.2Mb)
If you'd prefer to see a written version of the case studies then they can be downloaded below:
Case study 1: baseline analysis (pdf, 226kb)
Case study 2: impact of public sector job cuts (pdf, 269kb)
Dealing with change
Other models rely on past trends being a reliable indicator of the future. However, public policy is about changing trends and our model has been developed to explicitly deal with change.
Different factors influence each other
Other models tend to deal with a narrow field; the economy or population or land use. Our model recognises these factors are inter-related and models how they influence each other.
Places are related
Other models usually cover one geographical area, treating it as though it were an island. Our model recognises that what happens in one place depends on, and impacts on, what happens in nearby places.
Of course, like all models, our model is a simplification of reality. It recognises you can't predict every possible impact of a policy and it doesn't remove the need for judgement to play a part in decisions. Nevertheless, it's a major step forward and helps reduce the risks involved in big decisions.
How to access the model
There are two ways.
For those with the right expertise, we can provide you with training on how to use the model and supply you with a copy, subject to payment of a small license fee.
If you prefer us to run the model for you, we're happy to discuss your requirements and the costs involved.